Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar Cycles and Magnetic Poles Reversal

Kim Kwee Ng

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12

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Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar Cycles and Magnetic Poles Reversal

Kim Kwee Ng

Published in American Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics (Volume 7, Issue 1)

Received: 19 June 2019 Accepted: 12 July 2019 Published: 26 July 2019

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Abstract

The magnitude of the measured geomagnetic index increases when the Coronal Mass Ejections occur on the Sun's surface. The abrupt increase in the geomagnetic index has seriously impacted the accuracy in the forecast of the activity of the next solar cycle. A method is proposed to filter the effect from the Coronal Mass Ejections. The correlation between the geomagnetic index and the activity of the subsequent solar cycle is found to have drastically improved with the proposed scheme. A strong correlation between the maximum amplitude R_N of a solar cycle N and its pre-cycle coronal mass ejections adjusted monthly geomagnetic activity index has been qualitatively determined, as illustrated by an impressive correlation coefficient of 0.91+0.09-0.12, with its statistical significance estimated at 4.3 σ. The corrected data have significantly improved the correlation between the observed variables from their original un-corrected case of 0.63 ± 0.23. Our result indicates that the upcoming solar cycle, estimated at R₂₅ = 147 ± 30, would be stronger than the current waning solar cycle 24. In a related calculation, the magnetic poles reversals occurring in the solar cycles 21 and 22 are reproduced numerically from Maxwell's electromagnetic equations.

Published in	American Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics (Volume 7, Issue 1)
DOI	10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12
Page(s)	10-17
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2019. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Sunspots, Solar Flares, Solar Cycles, Precursor Method, Geomagnetic Activity, Magnetic Field, Magnetic Poles Reversal

References

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Kim Kwee Ng. (2019). Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar Cycles and Magnetic Poles Reversal. American Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 7(1), 10-17. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12

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Kim Kwee Ng. Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar Cycles and Magnetic Poles Reversal. Am. J. Astron. Astrophys. 2019, 7(1), 10-17. doi: 10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12

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AMA Style

Kim Kwee Ng. Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar Cycles and Magnetic Poles Reversal. Am J Astron Astrophys. 2019;7(1):10-17. doi: 10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12,
  author = {Kim Kwee Ng},
  title = {Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar Cycles and Magnetic Poles Reversal},
  journal = {American Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics},
  volume = {7},
  number = {1},
  pages = {10-17},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajaa.20190701.12},
  abstract = {The magnitude of the measured geomagnetic index increases when the Coronal Mass Ejections occur on the Sun's surface. The abrupt increase in the geomagnetic index has seriously impacted the accuracy in the forecast of the activity of the next solar cycle. A method is proposed to filter the effect from the Coronal Mass Ejections. The correlation between the geomagnetic index and the activity of the subsequent solar cycle is found to have drastically improved with the proposed scheme. A strong correlation between the maximum amplitude RN of a solar cycle N and its pre-cycle coronal mass ejections adjusted monthly geomagnetic activity index has been qualitatively determined, as illustrated by an impressive correlation coefficient of 0.91+0.09-0.12, with its statistical significance estimated at 4.3 σ. The corrected data have significantly improved the correlation between the observed variables from their original un-corrected case of 0.63 ± 0.23. Our result indicates that the upcoming solar cycle, estimated at R25 = 147 ± 30, would be stronger than the current waning solar cycle 24. In a related calculation, the magnetic poles reversals occurring in the solar cycles 21 and 22 are reproduced numerically from Maxwell's electromagnetic equations.},
 year = {2019}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar Cycles and Magnetic Poles Reversal
AU  - Kim Kwee Ng
Y1  - 2019/07/26
PY  - 2019
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12
T2  - American Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics
JF  - American Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics
JO  - American Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics
SP  - 10
EP  - 17
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2376-4686
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12
AB  - The magnitude of the measured geomagnetic index increases when the Coronal Mass Ejections occur on the Sun's surface. The abrupt increase in the geomagnetic index has seriously impacted the accuracy in the forecast of the activity of the next solar cycle. A method is proposed to filter the effect from the Coronal Mass Ejections. The correlation between the geomagnetic index and the activity of the subsequent solar cycle is found to have drastically improved with the proposed scheme. A strong correlation between the maximum amplitude RN of a solar cycle N and its pre-cycle coronal mass ejections adjusted monthly geomagnetic activity index has been qualitatively determined, as illustrated by an impressive correlation coefficient of 0.91+0.09-0.12, with its statistical significance estimated at 4.3 σ. The corrected data have significantly improved the correlation between the observed variables from their original un-corrected case of 0.63 ± 0.23. Our result indicates that the upcoming solar cycle, estimated at R25 = 147 ± 30, would be stronger than the current waning solar cycle 24. In a related calculation, the magnetic poles reversals occurring in the solar cycles 21 and 22 are reproduced numerically from Maxwell's electromagnetic equations.
VL  - 7
IS  - 1
ER  -

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Author Information

Kim Kwee Ng

Department of Physics and Astronomy, State University of New York at Stony Brook, New York, USA

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Kim Kwee Ng. (2019). Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar Cycles and Magnetic Poles Reversal. American Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 7(1), 10-17. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12

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ACS Style

Kim Kwee Ng. Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar Cycles and Magnetic Poles Reversal. Am. J. Astron. Astrophys. 2019, 7(1), 10-17. doi: 10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12

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AMA Style

Kim Kwee Ng. Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar Cycles and Magnetic Poles Reversal. Am J Astron Astrophys. 2019;7(1):10-17. doi: 10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12,
  author = {Kim Kwee Ng},
  title = {Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar Cycles and Magnetic Poles Reversal},
  journal = {American Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics},
  volume = {7},
  number = {1},
  pages = {10-17},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajaa.20190701.12},
  abstract = {The magnitude of the measured geomagnetic index increases when the Coronal Mass Ejections occur on the Sun's surface. The abrupt increase in the geomagnetic index has seriously impacted the accuracy in the forecast of the activity of the next solar cycle. A method is proposed to filter the effect from the Coronal Mass Ejections. The correlation between the geomagnetic index and the activity of the subsequent solar cycle is found to have drastically improved with the proposed scheme. A strong correlation between the maximum amplitude RN of a solar cycle N and its pre-cycle coronal mass ejections adjusted monthly geomagnetic activity index has been qualitatively determined, as illustrated by an impressive correlation coefficient of 0.91+0.09-0.12, with its statistical significance estimated at 4.3 σ. The corrected data have significantly improved the correlation between the observed variables from their original un-corrected case of 0.63 ± 0.23. Our result indicates that the upcoming solar cycle, estimated at R25 = 147 ± 30, would be stronger than the current waning solar cycle 24. In a related calculation, the magnetic poles reversals occurring in the solar cycles 21 and 22 are reproduced numerically from Maxwell's electromagnetic equations.},
 year = {2019}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar Cycles and Magnetic Poles Reversal
AU  - Kim Kwee Ng
Y1  - 2019/07/26
PY  - 2019
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12
T2  - American Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics
JF  - American Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics
JO  - American Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics
SP  - 10
EP  - 17
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2376-4686
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajaa.20190701.12
AB  - The magnitude of the measured geomagnetic index increases when the Coronal Mass Ejections occur on the Sun's surface. The abrupt increase in the geomagnetic index has seriously impacted the accuracy in the forecast of the activity of the next solar cycle. A method is proposed to filter the effect from the Coronal Mass Ejections. The correlation between the geomagnetic index and the activity of the subsequent solar cycle is found to have drastically improved with the proposed scheme. A strong correlation between the maximum amplitude RN of a solar cycle N and its pre-cycle coronal mass ejections adjusted monthly geomagnetic activity index has been qualitatively determined, as illustrated by an impressive correlation coefficient of 0.91+0.09-0.12, with its statistical significance estimated at 4.3 σ. The corrected data have significantly improved the correlation between the observed variables from their original un-corrected case of 0.63 ± 0.23. Our result indicates that the upcoming solar cycle, estimated at R25 = 147 ± 30, would be stronger than the current waning solar cycle 24. In a related calculation, the magnetic poles reversals occurring in the solar cycles 21 and 22 are reproduced numerically from Maxwell's electromagnetic equations.
VL  - 7
IS  - 1
ER  -

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